Mongolia's agricultural film market is heavily reliant on Chinese imports, with annual demand of approximately 8,000–12,000 tonnes, almost entirely used for vegetable greenhouse covering. In H1 2026, import costs remained under pressure due to the MNT depreciating by approximately 4.2% against the CNY and international crude oil price volatility. The market faces dual risks of seasonal logistics tightness and exchange rate fluctuations, but the Mongolian government's greenhouse agriculture expansion plan provides support for medium- to long-term demand.
Mongolia has no domestic large-scale agricultural film production capacity, and market supply is almost entirely dependent on imports. Total import volume in 2025 was approximately 10,500 tonnes, with Q1 2026 imports at approximately 2,800 tonnes. Demand is primarily for vegetable greenhouse covering, concentrated in agricultural areas around Ulaanbaatar and Selenge Province. The supply-demand balance table is as follows:
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Production (tonnes) | ≈0 | ≈0 | ≈0 |
| Imports (tonnes) | 9,600 | 10,500 | 2,800 |
| Apparent Consumption (tonnes) | 9,600 | 10,500 | 2,800 |
China's agricultural film industry has ample capacity. In H1 2026, mainstream PE agricultural film prices ranged from 8,500–11,000 CNY/tonne, influenced by LLDPE feedstock price fluctuations. The national average operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was approximately 58%–65%, with capacity utilization at a moderate level. Exports to Mongolia are mainly greenhouse films, with Q1 2026 export volume increasing year-on-year.
Retail prices of agricultural film in Mongolia are significantly higher than domestic Chinese prices due to import tariffs (approx. 5%) and cross-border logistics costs. In H1 2026, the retail price of PE greenhouse film in the Ulaanbaatar market was approximately 13,500–16,000 CNY/tonne, a premium of approximately 35%–50% over China's port FOB prices. Import sources are highly concentrated.
PE greenhouse film dominates Mongolia's agricultural film imports, with mulch film and EVA functional film accounting for smaller shares. By application scenario, products can be categorized into greenhouse film, mulch film, and silage cover film. Due to Mongolia's cold climate, greenhouse film requires high thermal insulation performance, with demand for multi-layer co-extruded film gradually increasing.
| Product Segment | 2025 Import Share | Price Range (CIF) | Demand Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE Greenhouse Film | approx. 65% | 11,500–14,000 CNY/tonne | ↑ Growing |
| PE Mulch Film | approx. 22% | 9,000–11,000 CNY/tonne | → Stable |
| EVA Composite Functional Film | approx. 10% | 15,000–19,000 CNY/tonne | ↑ Growing |
| Others (Silage film, etc.) | approx. 3% | 10,000–13,000 CNY/tonne | → Stable |
Greenhouse film is the core finished product in Mongolia's agricultural film market, with 2025 import volume of approximately 6,800 tonnes, accounting for 65% of total agricultural film imports. Mongolia's greenhouse area is approximately 3,200–3,800 hectares. Based on an average annual replacement rate of 1.8–2.2 tonnes per hectare, the greenhouse film demand gap is stable. Q1 2026 greenhouse film import volume increased by approximately 8% year-on-year, reflecting greenhouse expansion demand.
The price of LLDPE (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene), the core raw material for agricultural film, directly affects production costs. In June 2026, the LLDPE price in China's East China market was approximately 8,200–9,000 CNY/tonne, down approximately 3.5% from the same period in 2025. Raw material costs account for 65%–72% of agricultural film ex-factory prices, with significant cost pass-through effects.
| Raw Material | China Price (June 2026) | Estimated Mongolia CIF Price | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLDPE (East China) | 8,200–9,000 CNY/tonne | 10,800–12,000 CNY/tonne | -1.2% |
| LDPE (East China) | 9,500–10,300 CNY/tonne | 12,200–13,500 CNY/tonne | -0.8% |
Mongolia's GDP growth rate in Q1 2026 was approximately 5.2%, with mining exports (copper, coal) remaining the main driver. The MNT/CNY exchange rate continued to weaken, at approximately 1 CNY ≈ 478 MNT in June 2026. The agricultural film import tariff is 5%, with a 10% VAT, keeping the overall tax burden manageable.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Mongolia GDP Growth | 5.2% | 2026 Q1 |
| MNT/CNY Exchange Rate | approx. 478 | June 2026 |
| Agricultural Film Import Tariff | 5% | Current |
| Mongolia Inflation Rate (CPI) | approx. 8.1% | May 2026 |
⚠ Risk Continued MNT depreciation pushes up import costs; China-Mongolia cross-border logistics are affected by weather and customs clearance efficiency, with seasonal supply tightness in winter. Bank of Mongolia interest rate hikes may curb agricultural investment growth.
✓ Opportunity The Mongolian government's "Green Greenhouse Plan" targets an additional 800 hectares of greenhouse area by 2027; ongoing China-Mongolia bilateral trade facilitation and the increasing share of cross-border CNY settlement will help reduce foreign exchange costs.