Uzbekistan is one of the largest agricultural producers in Central Asia, with a solid fruit and vegetable export advantage. However, soybean import dependency exceeds 85% and vegetable oil self-sufficiency is below 40%. Global grain prices softened moderately in H1 2026, but the depreciation of the Uzbek som pushed up import costs. In phosphate fertilizers, Uzbekistan's domestic phosphate rock supply is stable, but high-grade rock imports are still needed to supplement. ▲ Imported soybean CIF price rose about 8% year-on-year, while fruit export volume grew due to improved China-Uzbekistan logistics corridors.
Source: State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (2025 annual report), 100ppi.com (June 2026 DAP price), FAO trade data
Uzbekistan's agricultural and sideline products supply-demand shows structural divergence: surplus in fruits and vegetables (export-oriented) and deficit in oilseeds (soybeans, sunflower seeds) and vegetable oils. Domestic soybean output is only about 28,000 tons/year, while consumption is around 200,000 tons, with the gap filled by imports. Phosphate fertilizer domestic output is about 850,000 tons/year, largely meeting cotton planting demand, but high-analysis phosphate fertilizers are still imported.
| Category | Domestic Output (10k tons) | Consumption (10k tons) | Net Import (10k tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | approximately 2.8 | approximately 20.5 | approximately 17.7 |
| Fresh Fruits | approximately 310 | approximately 240 | Net Export approximately 70 |
| Phosphate Fertilizer (product) | approximately 85 | approximately 92 | approximately 7 |
| Vegetable Oil | approximately 18 | approximately 48 | approximately 30 |
Source: FAO statistical database (2024-2025 data), Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture annual report (2025); some 2026 data are rollover estimates
As the world's largest agricultural importer, China's soybean imports remained high in H1 2026. DCE No.1 soybean futures traded in the 4,500-4,800 CNY/ton range. The diammonium phosphate (DAP) market was supported by phosphate rock costs, keeping prices firm. China's fruit imports from Uzbekistan (cherries, grapes) continued to grow, with import value exceeding 230 million USD in 2025.
Source: Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE, June 2026), 100ppi.com (June 2026 DAP), General Administration of Customs of China (2025 import data)
In Uzbekistan's agricultural and sideline products market, imported soybeans mainly come from Russia and Kazakhstan, with CIF prices around 580-640 USD/ton (Q2 2026). Fruit exports are primarily destined for Russia and China. Phosphate fertilizer imports mainly come from China and Morocco, with indicative import CIF prices around 420-460 USD/ton. The som depreciation has increased costs for all imported categories.
| Category | Import Dependency | Main Source Countries | CIF Price (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | approximately 87% | Russia, Kazakhstan | 580-640 |
| Phosphate Fertilizer (DAP) | approximately 8% | China, Morocco | 420-460 |
| Vegetable Oil | approximately 62% | Russia, Ukraine | 1,050-1,200 |
Source: State Customs Committee of Uzbekistan (2025 trade statistics), Argus Media (Q2 2026 fertilizer CIF assessment); some 2026 data are rollover estimates
Agricultural and sideline product categories can be segmented into oilseeds (soybeans, sunflower seeds), fruits and vegetables, and phosphate fertilizers and agricultural inputs three major segments. Soybean imports are mainly genetically modified soybeans (approximately 75%), used for crushing and feed; fruit exports focus on table grapes, cherries, and dried apricots as core products; phosphate fertilizers are primarily DAP and single superphosphate.
| Segment Category | Annual Import/Export Volume | Average Price Trend | Main Application |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans (Import) | approximately 177,000 tons | ▲ +8% | Crushing, Feed |
| Table Grapes (Export) | approximately 180,000 tons | ▲ +5% | Fresh consumption |
| DAP Phosphate Fertilizer (Import) | approximately 70,000 tons | ▲ +3% | Cotton, Wheat fertilization |
Source: Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture (2025), General Administration of Customs of China (2025), 100ppi.com (June 2026 price trend)
Soybean oil and soybean meal are the core finished products of soybean crushing in Uzbekistan. Annual soybean oil consumption is about 120,000 tons, while domestic output is only about 45,000 tons; the gap is filled by importing finished oil. Soybean meal, as a feed ingredient, is in strong demand with annual consumption of about 140,000 tons. Processed fruit products (raisins, dried apricots) are advantageous export finished products, with annual export volume of about 80,000 tons.
Source: FAO processed products data (2025), Uzbekistan Food Industry Association annual report (2025); 2026 data are rollover estimates
Soybeans as a core intermediate product show a price spread of approximately 150-200 USD/ton between China's production area (Heilongjiang) ex-warehouse price and Uzbekistan's import CIF price (including freight and tariffs). For phosphate rock, Uzbekistan's Navoiy region rock grade is about 22-24% P₂O₅, while high-grade ore (30%+) still needs to be imported from Morocco. Logistics costs account for 18-22% of imported soybean CIF prices.
| Raw Material / Intermediate | China Production Area Price | Uzbekistan CIF Price | Price Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans (non-GMO) | approximately 4,680 CNY/ton | approximately 620 USD/ton | approximately 160 USD/ton |
| Phosphate Rock (28% P₂O₅) | approximately 580 CNY/ton | approximately 85 USD/ton | Freight-driven |
| Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) | approximately 3,920 CNY/ton | approximately 440 USD/ton | approximately 55 USD/ton |
Source: 100ppi.com (June 2026 China prices), Argus Media (Q2 2026 Uzbekistan CIF assessment), State Committee of Geology and Mineral Resources of Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan's macroeconomy maintained steady growth, with GDP growth of about 5.6% in 2025, and agriculture accounting for about 24% of GDP. China-Uzbekistan bilateral trade exceeded 15 billion USD in 2025, with agricultural trade share increasing year by year. The government offers tax incentives for foreign investment in agricultural processing, while exchange rate fluctuations remain the main challenge for importers.
Source: World Bank (2025-2026 Uzbekistan Economic Outlook), General Administration of Customs of China (2025 trade statistics), Central Bank of Uzbekistan (June 2026 exchange rate)
Key risks include ongoing som depreciation pressure, Central Asian geopolitical logistics uncertainty, and global soybean price volatility. Opportunity windows lie in deepening China-Uzbekistan agricultural cooperation (Belt and Road framework), Uzbekistan's domestic soybean planting subsidy policy, and fruit cold-chain logistics infrastructure improvements that drive export growth. Localizing phosphate fertilizer production to replace imports is also a long-term opportunity.
Source: Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture (2026 agricultural policy announcement), World Bank (June 2026 Commodity Outlook), Argus Media
Note: Some monthly data for 2026 were not fully released at the report update date; "rollover estimate" is indicated or the latest available data is used. All price data are open-market reference prices; actual transaction prices may vary due to contract terms, logistics conditions, and other factors.