Kazakhstan is a globally significant wheat exporter, with wheat production of approximately 15.8 million tons in the 2024/2025 season and exports accounting for about 38% of production. As its emerging trade partner, China imported approximately 650,000 tons of Kazakh wheat in 2024, representing about 6% of China's total wheat imports. Currently, Kazakh grain export prices are facing downward pressure due to loose global supply-demand conditions and Tenge exchange rate fluctuations, but the continued improvement of Sino-Kazakh logistics corridors provides support for trade growth.
| Indicator | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Wheat Production | 15.8 million tons | +4.2% |
| 2024 Total Grain Exports | ~9.2 million tons | Flat |
| Wheat Exports to China | 650,000 tons | +18% |
Source: Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture, General Administration of Customs of China, data as of December 2025 (previous values carried forward as of June 2026, no latest public data)
Kazakhstan's grain and cereal sector is dominated by wheat, with total grain production of approximately 26.8 million tons in the 2024/2025 season. Domestic consumption is about 14.5 million tons, exports about 9.2 million tons, and carryover stocks about 3.1 million tons. The main consumption areas are flour processing (65%), feed (22%), and seed/industrial use (13%), with overall supply and demand remaining loose.
| Item | Volume (10k tons) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Total Grain Production | 2,680 | 100% |
| Domestic Consumption | 1,450 | 54% |
| Total Exports | 920 | 34% |
| Carryover Stocks | 310 | 12% |
Source: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, FAO Cereal Market Report, December 2025 data (previous values carried forward as of June 2026)
China's total wheat imports in 2024 were approximately 11 million tons, of which approximately 650,000 tons were imported from Kazakhstan, accounting for 5.9%. China's domestic wheat price remained in the range of approximately 2,850–2,950 CNY/ton as of June 2026, with an operating rate of about 72%. Sino-Kazakh grain trade is primarily conducted through border small-scale trade and rail transport, with imported Kazakh wheat mainly used for flour processing in the northwestern region.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Wheat Imports of China | 11 million tons | ~10.5 million tons |
| Wheat Imports from Kazakhstan | 650,000 tons | ~720,000 tons |
| Domestic Wheat Average Price | 2,920 CNY/ton | ~2,880 CNY/ton |
Source: General Administration of Customs of China, Shengyishe Wheat Price Monitoring, December 2025 – May 2026 data
Kazakhstan's domestic wheat price was approximately 185–210 USD/ton (FOB Aktau Port) as of June 2026, slightly lower than the beginning of the year. Kazakhstan's grain import dependency is extremely low (only small-scale imports of seeds and specialty grains, <3%). The main export destinations are Uzbekistan (35%), Afghanistan (18%), Tajikistan (12%), China (8%), and Iran (7%).
| Export Destination | Share | 2024 Export Volume (10k tons) |
|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | 35% | 322 |
| Afghanistan | 18% | 166 |
| China | 8% | 74 |
Source: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture Trade Report, Q4 2025 data (previous values carried forward as of June 2026)
Kazakhstan's grain and cereal sector is centered on wheat (59% of production), followed by barley (14%), corn (5%), rice (3%), and other cereals. In 2024, the average export price of wheat was approximately 240 USD/ton, barley approximately 195 USD/ton, and corn approximately 210 USD/ton. Demand for high-protein hard wheat has been growing relatively fast.
| Category | 2024 Production (10k tons) | Avg. Export Price (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 1,580 | 240 |
| Barley | 380 | 195 |
| Corn | 135 | 210 |
| Rice | 78 | 340 |
Source: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, Argus Media Grain Quotations, December 2025 data
Flour is the core processed product of Kazakhstan's grain and cereal sector. Flour production in 2024 was approximately 3.8 million tons, with exports of approximately 1.8 million tons, mainly sold to Afghanistan and neighboring Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan's flour processing capacity utilization rate is approximately 68%, and high-end specialty flour capacity is insufficient, requiring small-scale imports. Flour export prices are approximately 350–380 USD/ton.
| Indicator | 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Flour Production | 3.8 million tons | Flat |
| Flour Export Volume | 1.8 million tons | +5% |
| Processing Capacity Utilization | 68% | — |
Source: Kazakhstan Grain Processing Association, FAO Processed Products Report, December 2025 data
Kazakhstan's grain production costs are significantly affected by fertilizer and seed prices. As of June 2026, urea prices in Chinese production regions were approximately 1,950 CNY/ton, and diammonium phosphate approximately 3,650 CNY/ton. Kazakhstan's imported fertilizer CIF prices (from Russia) were approximately 280–320 USD/ton. Approximately 60% of high-quality seeds rely on imports, and logistics costs account for about 12%–18% of the grain CIF price.
| Input | China Domestic Price | Kazakhstan CIF/Indicative Price |
|---|---|---|
| Urea | 1,950 CNY/ton | ~290 USD/ton |
| Diammonium Phosphate | 3,650 CNY/ton | ~480 USD/ton |
| Wheat Seed (High Quality) | — | ~520 USD/ton |
Source: Shengyishe Fertilizer Price Monitoring, Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture Input Report, December 2025 – May 2026 data
In 2024, the total bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan was approximately 41 billion USD, of which agricultural trade was approximately 1.8 billion USD. Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate in 2025 was approximately 4.2%, and agriculture accounted for about 5.1% of GDP. The Tenge to RMB exchange rate is approximately 1 CNY ≈ 64 KZT. Kazakhstan implements a zero-tariff policy on grain exports, and the dedicated grain channel at the China-Kazakhstan Horgos border port has an annual customs clearance capacity of 2 million tons.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Total Sino-Kazakh Bilateral Trade | 41 billion USD | 2024 |
| Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate | 4.2% | 2025 |
| KZT/CNY Exchange Rate | ~64:1 | June 2026 |
Source: General Administration of Customs of China, World Bank, National Bank of Kazakhstan, 2025 – June 2026 data
⚠ Risk Kazakhstan's grain production is highly dependent on climatic conditions; drought in the northern region in 2025 caused an approximately 8% reduction in some production areas; Tenge exchange rate fluctuations increase trade settlement uncertainty. ✓ Opportunity The Sino-Kazakh grain corridor continues to upgrade, with Horgos Port adding 300,000 tons of storage capacity in 2026; the Kazakh government encourages high-value-added flour exports to China, with the policy dividend window extending until 2027.
Source: Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture Climate Bulletin, China Ministry of Commerce Sino-Kazakh Cooperation Brief, 2025 – June 2026