Kazakhstan's agricultural film market relies heavily on imports, with China accounting for approximately 65% of total import volume. In H1 2026, driven by rising PE feedstock prices, CIF prices rose approximately 8% YoY⚠ Cost Pressure. Greenhouse agriculture expansion policies in southern Kazakhstan continue to drive demand, with annual agricultural film imports expected to exceed 5.2万吨. The import substitution window is projected to remain open for another 3-5 years.
Kazakhstan's annual agricultural film demand is approximately 5万吨, while domestic production capacity is under 0.8万吨, leaving a supply gap exceeding 4.2万吨. Greenhouse vegetable cultivation and mulch film application are the two core consumption segments, together accounting for about 78% of demand. Import dependency has remained above 85% for an extended period.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Production (万吨) | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Import Volume (万吨) | 4.10 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Apparent Consumption (万吨) | 4.75 | 5.32 | 5.98 |
In June 2026, China's agricultural film industry operating rate was approximately 72%, with mainstream LLDPE 7042 offers in East China at 8,350-8,650元/吨. Supported by crude oil prices, feedstock costs remain elevated, with agricultural film ex-factory prices up approximately 6% YoY. Export orders to Central Asia continue to grow steadily.
Kazakhstan's end-user retail prices for agricultural film range from approximately 12,500 to 14,800元/吨, representing a premium of roughly 55-70% over China's ex-factory prices. The premium is primarily driven by logistics costs (land transportation approximately 180-220 USD/ton) and distribution markups. The main consumption areas are Almaty Region and Turkistan Region in the south.
Kazakhstan's agricultural film imports are dominated by greenhouse film (thickness 0.08-0.15mm) and mulch film (thickness 0.008-0.02mm). Demand for functional agricultural films (anti-drip/fog, high thermal retention, UV-resistant) is growing significantly, with their share expected to rise to 28% in 2026.
| Product Segment | Import Share | Price Range (USD/ton CIF) | Demand Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenhouse Film | 52% | 1,550-1,850 | ↑ Growth |
| Mulch Film | 26% | 1,300-1,520 | → Stable |
| Functional Ag Film | 22% | 1,800-2,200 | ↑↑ Rapid Growth |
Greenhouse film represents the largest supply-demand gap category in Kazakhstan, with domestic production meeting only about 12% of demand. Greenhouse film imports are projected to reach 2.7万吨 in 2026, with prices rising due to PE resin cost pass-through. Mulch film inventory is relatively ample, with the market dominated by price competition.
Core raw material LLDPE accounts for approximately 62% of agricultural film production costs. In June 2026, China East China LLDPE 7042 prices were 8,350-8,650元/吨, with Kazakhstan import indicative CIF Almaty prices around 1,180-1,250 USD/ton. The feedstock cost transmission cycle is approximately 4-6 weeks.
| Raw Material / Intermediate | China Price | Kazakhstan CIF Indicative Price | Cost Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLDPE 7042 | 8,350-8,650元/吨 | 1,180-1,250 USD/ton CIF | 62% |
| LDPE 2426H | 9,100-9,450元/吨 | 1,300-1,380 USD/ton CIF | 18% |
| EVA Resin | 12,200-13,500元/吨 | 1,720-1,900 USD/ton CIF | 12% |
Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate in 2025 was 4.8%, with agriculture accounting for approximately 5.2% of GDP. The KZT/CNY exchange rate stands at approximately 66.5:1, representing a depreciation of about 3.5% compared to the same period in 2025. Sino-Kazakh agricultural product trade benefits from a zero-tariff policy, with the import tariff on agricultural film at 0%.
| Indicator | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (2025) | 4.8% | +0.3pct |
| Agriculture GDP Share | 5.2% | → Unchanged |
| KZT/CNY Exchange Rate | 66.5 | Depreciated 3.5% |
| Ag Film Import Tariff | 0% | Zero Tariff |
Key risks include ⚠ KZT exchange rate volatility (annualized volatility approx. 12%), rising international PE feedstock prices, and occasional congestion along Central Asian logistics corridors. Opportunities lie in Kazakhstan's "Agriculture Modernization 2030" policy, which explicitly supports greenhouse agriculture expansion, and the China-Kazakhstan Khorgos border cooperation zone, which provides trade facilitation dividends.