Kazakhstan · Fertilizer Overseas Market Analysis Report

Target Country: Kazakhstan Main Category: Fertilizers (Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash & Compound) Data Update: June 22, 2026
Kazakhstan Fertilizer Core Conclusions
In the first half of 2026, Kazakhstan's fertilizer market continued fluctuating at high levels. Domestic production remains severely insufficient, with import dependency persistently above 80%. Geopolitical tensions and China's export quota restrictions have intensified supply chain vulnerability. During the spring planting peak, spot supply of DAP and urea was tight, with prices rising approximately 8%-12% year-on-year. Advancing local nitrogen fertilizer projects and deepening Sino-Kazakh agricultural cooperation represent critical structural opportunities for breaking the deadlock.
82%
Overall Fertilizer Import Dependency
4.2 Billion USD
Total Fertilizer Import Value 2025
↑12%
DAP CIF Price YoY Increase
⚠️ Major Risk: Ongoing supply disruption risks due to Russia-Ukraine tensions and logistics bottlenecks.
Source: Argus Media FSU, June 2026; Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, 2025 Annual Report
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Key Indicator2024/25 Season2025/26E SeasonTrend
Domestic Production780k mt850k mt↑9%
Total Imports2.05M mt2.10M mt↑2.4%
Domestic Consumption2.60M mt2.70M mt↑3.8%
Ending Stocks230k mt250k mtStable

Note: E = Estimate. The supply-demand gap is entirely met by imports, with Russia and China as the main sources.

Source: Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture, FAO Crop Prospects Report, May 2026
China Market Status
In June 2026, China's fertilizer market exhibited a pattern of "stable domestic, tight export". Under domestic supply-guarantee and price-stabilization policies, urea and MAP prices fluctuated within a narrow range. However, statutory inspection policies remain strict, and DAP exports are significantly restricted, forcing traditional buyers like Kazakhstan to turn to spot markets for high-priced procurement.
3,700-3,850
DAP Transaction Price (CNY/mt)
59%
Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Avg Operating Rate
⚠️ Export Restrictions: China's DAP export volume in June fell 18% YoY, prioritizing domestic supply.
Source: Longzhong Information, June 22, 2026; 100ppi.com, 3rd Week of June 2026
Kazakhstan Market Status
Entering June, Kazakhstan has moved into the summer top-dressing period. Affected by the slight depreciation of the Tenge and high international sea/rail freight rates, end-user farmer procurement costs have increased significantly. Low-priced urea from Uzbekistan has substantially impacted the southern Kazakhstan market, but the main northern production areas remain heavily dependent on high-analysis compound fertilizers from Russia and China.
$480-510
Urea Wholesale Price (USD/mt, CIF)
$560-590
DAP Retail Price (USD/mt)
1 USD : 455.2
USD/KZT Exchange Rate (June)
Source: Argus FSU Market Report, June 2026; National Bank of Kazakhstan, June 20, 2026
Product Segmentation Structure
Product CategoryEst. Annual Import Vol. (10k mt)Market SharePrice Trend
Nitrogen Fertilizer (Urea, etc.)11554.8%↑6%
Phosphate Fertilizer (DAP, etc.)6531.0%↑12%
Potash Fertilizer (MOP, etc.)3014.2%Stable

The price increase for DAP is significantly higher than for nitrogen fertilizer, mainly driven by reduced Chinese exports and rising international sulfur costs.

Source: Kazakhstan Ministry of Trade, Q1 2026 Trade Bulletin; Projected based on prior models
Core Finished Product Supply & Demand (DAP)
Kazakhstan has no domestic DAP production capacity and relies 100% on imports. Total imports in 2026 are estimated at 650k mt. Hit by tightening Chinese export quotas and rising Moroccan DAP prices, Kazakh traders have turned to high-priced Russian supply, resulting in regional shortages during the planting season.
650k mt
Annual DAP Import Requirement
44%
Share from Russia
38%
Share from China (Declining)
Source: China Customs, Jan-May 2026 Export Data; IPC, June 2026
Intermediate Products and Raw Material Value
Raw Material / IntermediateAvg Price China Production AreaIndicated CIF Price Kazakhstan
Phosphate Rock (32% P2O5)980 CNY/mt$140-160/mt
Sulfuric Acid (98%)280 CNY/mt$60-75/mt
Ammonia3,100 CNY/mt$420-450/mt

High international sulfur and ammonia prices have significantly driven up the import cost of DAP and compound fertilizers.

Source: Mysteel, June 2026; 100ppi.com, June 22, 2026; Argus FSU Freight Assessment
Trade and Macro Indicators
4.5%
Kazakhstan GDP Growth 2025
5.2%
Kazakhstan Expected GDP Growth 2026
11.8 Billion USD
Total Fertilizer Import Value 2025
0%
Fertilizer Import Tariff (EAEU Framework)

Kazakhstan implements a zero-tariff policy on fertilizer imports to ensure food security, with the agricultural subsidy budget growing by 12%.

Source: World Bank Kazakhstan Economic Report, Spring 2026; Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Tariff Schedule
Risks and Opportunity Windows
Major Risks: Geopolitical conflicts disrupting Black Sea/Caspian Sea logistics; continuous tightening of Chinese export controls; Tenge/USD exchange rate volatility eroding trader margins. Should the Russia-Ukraine situation escalate, Q3 supply could experience a cliff-like decline.
Windows of Opportunity: The Sino-Kazakh Belt and Road green agricultural corridor brings logistics benefits; the local urea project (KazAzot expansion) is expected to be operational in 2027, creating a window for equipment imports and technical services; acceptance of Chinese water-soluble and specialty fertilizers is rapidly increasing in Kazakhstan.
📈 Opportunity Alert: Localization substitution policy encourages foreign investment in plant construction; huge gap in agrochemical services.
Source: AIFC Agricultural Report, May 2026; Kazinform Economic Reference

Summary of Core Data Sources

Note: Some forecast values are calculated based on historical public data models; data not updated in real-time is marked as "Using previous values, no latest public data available."

Disclaimer: The data in this report is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets are risky; decisions should be made with caution.