Kazakhstan Coffee · Overseas Market Analysis Report

In H1 2026, Kazakhstan's coffee consumption remains heavily import-dependent, with an import penetration rate of 98%. Affected by Brazilian drought and tight shipping capacity in Southeast Asia, overall CIF prices rose approximately 9% year-on-year. Moderate tenge depreciation pushed up end-retail costs. Instant coffee remains dominant, but specialty coffee demand is growing significantly.

Kazakhstan has no commercial coffee cultivation; supply relies entirely on imports. Total domestic consumption in 2026 is projected to reach 38,000 tonnes, with instant coffee accounting for 72%. Driven by rising incomes and coffee culture adoption, consumption growth is expected to accelerate to 8.5%.

China's domestic coffee demand is strong, driving growth in both imports and processing capacity. In May 2026, green bean imports rose 18% year-on-year, and the average price of Yunnan specialty green beans increased by 15%. Chinese-brand instant and drip-bag coffee exports to Kazakhstan continue expanding, with notable supply chain synergies.

The average retail price of local instant coffee is about 2,500 tenge/kg (approx. 5.5 USD). The number of specialty coffee shops in Almaty and Nur-Sultan grew 35% annually. Thanks to the Eurasian Economic Union's zero-tariff policy, the share of European brands re-exported via Russia rebounded to 15%.

Instant coffee (2101.11) ranks first in import value, while unroasted coffee beans (0901.11) are growing rapidly. Younger consumer groups are driving rapid penetration of RTD and capsule categories, with the import structure trending toward premiumization.

Instant coffee powder is the core finished product. Global Robusta bean shortages have driven raw material costs sharply higher, squeezing local packer margins. Traders are sourcing alternatives from Indonesia; local packer utilization rate holds around 78%, with wholesale prices up 12% year-on-year.

Vietnam and Indonesia are the main origins. In June 2026, China CIF prices for Robusta green beans were quoted at 1,050-1,200 USD/tonne. Affected by a 15% freight increase, Kazakhstan border delivery prices rose to 1,350-1,500 USD/tonne, with a tenge settlement exchange rate of approx. 454.5.

Macroeconomic conditions remain stable, with Q2 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.5%. The zero-tariff advantage for coffee imports under the Eurasian Economic Union framework is significant. Improved customs clearance efficiency at the China-Kazakhstan Khorgos port has greatly shortened logistics lead times.

⚠ Risk Major global producing regions face a 5% output reduction due to climate impact; raw material prices fluctuate at high levels. ✅ Opportunity Chinese coffee chains are accelerating overseas expansion; Sino-Kazakh trade volume grew 12% YoY; significant potential exists in localized packing and branding.