Kazakhstan's agrochemical market import dependency exceeds 60%, with total fertilizer consumption reaching approximately 2.8 million tonnes in 2025. DAP landed price maintained at USD 580-620/t, and the share of Chinese origin increased to about 35%. Key risks stem from tenge exchange rate fluctuations (depreciation of about 8% in 2025) and competition from low-priced Russian supplies. The country has abundant phosphate rock resources but insufficient processing capacity; policies are promoting localized production.
Source: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, Argus Media, Q4 2025 – Q1 2026 data
Kazakhstan's annual fertilizer consumption is about 2.8 million tonnes, domestic production about 1.05 million tonnes, leaving a gap of about 1.75 million tonnes met by imports. Nitrogen fertilizers account for the largest consumption share (about 55%), followed by phosphate (about 30%); potash is entirely imported. Expansion of agricultural acreage drives demand growth of about 3-5% annually.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Production (10,000 t) | 98 | 102 | 105 |
| Imports (10,000 t) | 158 | 165 | 175 |
| Total Consumption (10,000 t) | 256 | 267 | 280 |
| Import Dependency Rate | 61.7% | 61.8% | 62.5% |
Source: Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, FAO database, 2025 data estimated from Q1-Q3 cumulative figures
China's phosphate fertilizer industry maintains high operating rates; DAP exports in 2025 were about 5.8 million tonnes. Domestic DAP ex-factory prices fluctuate between RMB 3,800-4,200/t, while sulfuric acid prices remain stable at RMB 280-350/t. Exports to Kazakhstan are mainly rail-based, with freight costs about USD 45-55/t.
Source: Longzhong Information, Zhuochuang Information, Shengyishe, Q4 2025 – May 2026 data
Kazakhstan's local DAP landed price is USD 580-620/t, with imports mainly from Russia (about 40%), China (about 35%) and Uzbekistan (about 15%). Consumption is concentrated in the southern agricultural regions (Almaty, Zhambyl oblasts). Tenge/USD exchange rate is about 475:1 (June 2026), depreciating about 3% since the beginning of the year.
Source: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, Argus FSU Fertilizer Report, Q4 2025 – Q1 2026
Fertilizer imports are dominated by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers; potash is entirely imported. DAP is the main phosphate import, while urea and ammonium nitrate are the major nitrogen imports. Among pesticide imports, herbicides account for the largest share (about 55%), insecticides and fungicides account for 25% and 20% respectively.
| Product | Annual Imports (10,000 t) | Price Range (USD/t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAP | 48-52 | 580-620 | ↑5% |
| Urea | 55-60 | 420-460 | → Flat |
| Ammonium Nitrate | 25-30 | 380-420 | ↑3% |
| Potash (MOP) | 20-25 | 350-400 | ↓4% |
Source: Kazakhstan Customs Statistics, Argus Media, 2025 annual data summary
DAP is the core phosphate fertilizer product in Kazakhstan, with annual consumption of about 0.5 million tonnes, almost entirely imported. Domestic phosphate rock (Karatau basin in Zhambyl Oblast) mining output is about 1.8 million tonnes/year, but deep processing capacity is insufficient; most phosphate rock is exported as raw material or used with low added value.
Source: Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of Kazakhstan, USGS Minerals Yearbook, 2025 data
In China, phosphate rock (30% P₂O₅) mine-mouth price is about RMB 550-650/t, sulfuric acid (98%) about RMB 300-340/t. The spread between Kazakhstan's DAP landed price and China's FOB price is about USD 80-100/t, mainly attributed to freight and trader margins. International sulfur price is stable at USD 90-110/t CFR.
Source: Longzhong Information, Shengyishe, Argus Phosphate Rock Report, Q4 2025 – May 2026
Kazakhstan's GDP growth in 2025 was about 4.2%, with agriculture accounting for about 5.5% of GDP. China-Kazakhstan trade volume exceeded USD 41 billion, of which agrochemical trade was about USD 850 million. Under the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), fertilizer tariffs are 0-5%, and China enjoys Most-Favored-Nation treatment.
| Indicator | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 4.2% | ↑0.3pp |
| Agriculture Share | 5.5% | → Flat |
| China-Kazakhstan Trade Volume | USD 41.2 bn | ↑8% |
| KZT/USD Exchange Rate | 475:1 | ↓3% (Depreciation) |
Source: World Bank, General Administration of Customs of China, National Bank of Kazakhstan, full-year 2025 – Q1 2026 data
Under the China-Kazakhstan Belt and Road framework, agrochemical cooperation is deepening; Chinese enterprises investing in phosphorus chemical projects in Kazakhstan enjoy a 5-year tax holiday. Due to sanctions on Russia, some procurement is shifting to the Chinese market, creating a window for Chinese companies to expand their share.
Source: Kazakh Invest, Eurasian Department of the Ministry of Commerce of China, policy documents 2025-2026
Note: Some June 2026 data points use the latest available public report (Q4 2025 – Q1 2026), as noted on the respective cards.