Kazakhstan Feed Ingredients: Key Conclusions
Kazakhstan's feed ingredients market features a structural pattern of grain self-sufficiency paired with protein feed import dependence. Total grain output in 2024/2025 is approximately 26 million tons, with feed consumption accounting for about 35%; annual soybean meal imports range from 120,000 to 150,000 tons. China-Kazakhstan feed trade continues to grow, but exchange rate volatility and logistics bottlenecks are key risks.
⚠ Key Change: In Q1 2026, the Kazakhstani tenge depreciated approximately 6.2% against the USD, driving up the landed cost of imported soybean meal and increasing procurement pressure on domestic feed enterprises.
Grain Self-Sufficiency ~95%+
Soy Meal Import Dependence ~65%
Feed Demand (Annual Growth) +4.8%
Source: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan 2025 Annual Report; USDA FAS Kazakhstan Grain Report December 2025
Supply & Demand Fundamentals
Kazakhstan's total grain supply in 2024/2025 is approximately 27.8 million tons (including stocks), with domestic consumption of about 18.5 million tons, of which feed consumption stands at approximately 6.5 million tons. There is a significant protein feed gap, with annual soybean meal demand of approximately 180,000-200,000 tons and domestic production of only 50,000-60,000 tons, leaving the remainder reliant on imports.
| Indicator | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | YoY Change |
|---|
| Total Grain Output (10,000 tons) | 2,480 | 2,600 | +4.8% |
| Feed Grain Consumption (10,000 tons) | 620 | 650 | +4.8% |
| Soybean Meal Imports (10,000 tons) | 11.5 | 13.2 | +14.8% |
| Compound Feed Output (10,000 tons) | 280 | 310 | +10.7% |
Source: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan 2025 Annual Report; APK-Inform Grain Supply & Demand Report December 2025
China Market Situation
China's feed ingredients market remained generally stable in Q2 2026. Soybean meal prices fluctuated between 3,550-3,950 yuan/ton, with the June average price edging down 1.2% month-on-month amid increased Brazilian soybean arrivals. Corn prices held at 2,480-2,620 yuan/ton, with feed enterprise operating rates at approximately 68%-72%.
Soy Meal Avg Price 3,680 yuan/ton (June 2026)
MoM -1.2%
Corn Avg Price 2,550 yuan/ton
Feed Operating Rate 70%
⚠ Note: China's grain import quotas for Kazakhstan were relaxed in 2026; in-quota wheat import tariff remains at 1%, out-of-quota tariff at 65%.
Source: 100ppi.com Soybean Meal/Corn Price Monitor June 20, 2026; China Feed Industry Association May 2026 Monthly Report
Kazakhstan Market Situation
Kazakhstan's domestic feed grain prices were driven by export demand, with feed wheat farm prices in June 2026 at approximately 58,000-65,000 tenge/ton (~130-145 USD/ton). Soybean meal is mainly imported from Russia, with landed prices of about 480-520 USD/ton and import dependence of ~65%. Main import sources are Russia (~72% share) and Argentina (~18%).
| Product | Local Price | Import Dependence | Main Source |
|---|
| Feed Wheat | 130-145 USD/ton | 0% (Net Exporter) | — |
| Soybean Meal | 480-520 USD/ton | ~65% | Russia, Argentina |
| Sunflower Meal | 210-240 USD/ton | ~15% | Mainly Domestic |
Source: Argus Media Black Sea Feed Ingredient Quotes June 2026; Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture Monthly Price Bulletin June 2026
Segmented Product Structure
Kazakhstan's feed ingredient consumption is dominated by grains (~68% share), with protein meals at ~18% and roughage/other at ~14%. Within protein meals, soybean meal holds the largest share (~55%), followed by sunflower meal (~30%) and rapeseed meal (~12%).
| Sub-Category | Annual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Share | Price Trend |
|---|
| Feed Grains (Wheat/Barley/Corn) | 650-680 | 68% | ↑3.5% |
| Soybean Meal | 18-20 | ~10% | ↑8.2% |
| Sunflower Meal | 40-45 | ~8% | Stable |
| Roughage (Alfalfa/Hay) | 120-140 | 14% | ↑2.1% |
Source: APK-Inform Kazakhstan Feed Market Annual Report December 2025; USDA FAS 2025 Annual Report
Core Finished Product: Compound Feed Supply & Demand
Kazakhstan's compound feed output in 2024/2025 reached approximately 3.1 million tons, up 10.7% year-on-year but still far below domestic livestock demand. The supply-demand gap of approximately 900,000-1.1 million tons is mainly filled by small-scale on-farm mixing and imported premixes. Compound feed prices in June 2026 were approximately 95,000-110,000 tenge/ton (~210-245 USD/ton).
Compound Feed Output 3.1 million tons
Supply-Demand Gap ~1 million tons
YoY Growth +10.7%
Inventory Level Low (~25 days)
Source: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan Industrial Output Report Q4 2025; APK-Inform Q1 2026 Feed Market Brief
Intermediates & Raw Material Value Transmission
China's domestic soybean meal price (3,680 yuan/ton, ~510 USD/ton) and Kazakhstan's landed import price (480-520 USD/ton) show a narrow spread, reflecting global soybean meal pricing integration. Kazakhstan's domestically produced sunflower meal at approximately 210-240 USD/ton offers a clear cost advantage, though its protein content (28%-32%) is lower than that of soybean meal (43%-46%).
| Product | China Production Price | KZ Landed/Ex-Works Price | Spread |
|---|
| Soybean Meal (43% Protein) | ~510 USD/ton | 480-520 USD/ton | Narrow |
| Sunflower Meal | ~280 USD/ton | 210-240 USD/ton | KZ Advantage |
| Feed Wheat | ~340 USD/ton | 130-145 USD/ton | KZ Significant Advantage |
Source: 100ppi.com June 2026; Argus Media June 2026; Kazakhstan Ministry of Agriculture June 2026
Trade & Macro Indicators
Kazakhstan's GDP grew approximately 4.8% in 2025, with agriculture accounting for about 5.2% of GDP. Bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and China reached approximately 43.8 billion USD in 2025, including about 2.8 billion USD in agricultural trade. Kazakhstan's feed ingredient exports are grain-dominated, with approximately 850,000 tons of wheat and 320,000 tons of barley exported to China in 2025.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|
| GDP Growth | 4.8% | 2025 |
| USD/KZT Exchange Rate | ~448:1 | June 2026 |
| KZ-CN Agricultural Trade | ~2.8 billion USD | 2025 |
| Wheat Export to China | ~850,000 tons | 2025 |
Source: World Bank Kazakhstan Economic Brief Q1 2026; General Administration of Customs of China 2025 Trade Statistics; National Bank of Kazakhstan June 2026 Exchange Rate Bulletin
Risks & Opportunity Windows
Key risks include tenge exchange rate volatility (6.2% depreciation in Q1 2026), Black Sea logistics uncertainties, and changes in Russian export policies. Opportunity windows lie in deepening China-Kazakhstan agricultural cooperation under China's Belt and Road Initiative, Kazakhstan's potential for expanding domestic protein feed production (expanding sunflower acreage), and the growing willingness of Chinese feed enterprises to source grains from Kazakhstan.
⚠ Geopolitical Risk: Russia temporarily adjusted its grain export tariff mechanism in June 2026, which may indirectly impact Kazakhstan's transit export costs.
Opportunity: CN-KZ Agri Cooperation
Opportunity: Domestic Protein Expansion
Risk: Tenge Depreciation
Risk: Logistics Bottleneck
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan Q1 2026 Monetary Policy Report; China Ministry of Commerce China-Kazakhstan Economic & Trade Brief May 2026
Disclaimer: The data in this report is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risk; exercise caution in decision-making.