Kazakhstan Lubricant Core Conclusions
The annual consumption of the Kazakh lubricant market is approximately 220,000 tons, with an import dependency as high as 77%. China's share of exports to Kazakhstan has risen to about 26%, while Russia remains the largest supplier. 2026 Q2 base oil prices operated weakly, automotive lubricants dominate the consumption structure, and the expansion of local blending capacity is gradually reshaping the import landscape.
- Annual Consumption Scale:~220,000 tons (2025)
- Import Dependence:~77%High Dependence
- China's Export Share to KZ:~26% (2025)
- Core Risks:Intensified Russian oil competition, exchange rate fluctuations
Sources: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, General Administration of Customs of P.R. China, Longzhong Information | Data as of June 2026
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Kazakhstan's lubricant market exhibits a pattern of "limited local production, import-led supply". 2025 local output was approximately 50,000 tons, imports were about 170,000 tons, and total consumption was around 220,000 tons. Industrial lubricant demand is steadily growing driven by infrastructure investments, while automotive lubricants maintain rigid demand alongside increasing car ownership.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| Domestic Output (10k tons) | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Import Volume (10k tons) | 15.5 | 16.3 | 17.0 |
| Export Volume (10k tons) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Apparent Consumption (10k tons) | 19.4 | 20.6 | 21.6 |
Sources: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, Argus Media | Full year 2025 data, cited June 2026
China Market Status
China's lubricant market operated steadily in Q2 2026, with base oil prices trending weakly. The ex-factory price range for II 150N was 5,800-6,200 RMB/ton. China's annual lubricant output is approximately 7.2 million tons, with capacity utilization maintained around 68%. Exports to Kazakhstan continued to grow, reaching approximately 45,000 tons in 2025.
- Base Oil II 150N Price:5,800-6,200 RMB/ton↓ Weak
- China Annual Lubricant Output:~7.2 M tons (2025)
- Capacity Utilization Rate:~68%
- Lubricant Exports to KZ:~45,000 tons (2025)↑ +12% YoY
Sources: Longzhong Information, Shengyishe, General Administration of Customs | June 2026 data, partially referencing prior values
Kazakhstan Market Status
End-user prices of lubricants in Kazakhstan are doubly influenced by import costs and the Tenge exchange rate. In Q2 2026, average retail prices for automotive engine oil were approximately 2,800-3,400 KZT/liter. Russia dominates the import sources (~48%), China's share has rapidly increased to about 26%, and European brands account for roughly 18%.
| Import Source Country | 2023 Share | 2024 Share | 2025 Share |
|---|
| Russia | 52% | 50% | 48% |
| China | 18% | 22% | 26% |
| Europe (DE/FR/IT) | 20% | 19% | 18% |
| Others | 10% | 9% | 8% |
Sources: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan Customs Data | 2025 full year summary, cited June 2026
Product Segmentation Structure
Automotive lubricants dominate Kazakhstan's lubricant consumption. In 2025, automotive lubricants accounted for about 62%, industrial lubricants for about 33%, and specialty oils for about 5%. Within automotive oils, engine oil is the largest subcategory, while demand for hydraulic fluids and gear oils in the industrial segment has grown significantly.
| Segment Category | Consumption Share | Annual Demand (10k tons) | Trend |
|---|
| Automotive Engine Oil | 42% | ~9.1 | ↑ Rigid Growth |
| Automotive Gear/Transmission Oil | 20% | ~4.3 | → Stable |
| Industrial Hydraulic Oil | 15% | ~3.2 | ↑ Infra-driven |
| Industrial Gear Oil | 10% | ~2.2 | ↑ Mining Demand |
| Specialty Oils (Transformer, etc.) | 5% | ~1.1 | → Stable |
Sources: Argus Media, Kazakh Industry Associations | 2025 consumption structure data, cited June 2026
Core Product Supply & Demand
Automotive engine oil (SAE 5W-40/10W-40) is the largest single product in the Kazakh market, with annual imports of about 80,000 tons. In Q2 2026, CIF landed prices (Almaty) for branded finished oils were around $1.8-$2.4/liter. Chinese brands, leveraging cost-performance advantages, are priced 8%-12% lower than Russian oils, continuously expanding their market share.
- Auto Engine Oil Annual Imports:~80,000 tons
- CIF Landed Price (Almaty):$1.8-$2.4/Liter
- Chinese Brand Price Advantage vs RU:8%-12% lower
- Local Blending Capacity Gap:~120,000 tons/yr
Sources: Longzhong Information, Kazakh Market Data | 2026 Q1-Q2 data, compiled June 2026
Intermediate & Raw Material Value
Base oil is the core raw material for lubricants, accounting for 55%-65% of the finished product cost. In June 2026, the ex-factory price of Chinese Group II 150N base oil was 5,800-6,200 RMB/ton, with the Khazak CIF indicative price at approximately $720-$760/ton. Additives depend on imports, steady prices in Q2.
| Raw Material / Intermediate | China Ex-Factory Price | KZ CIF Indicated Price | Trend |
|---|
| Group II Base Oil 150N | 5,800-6,200 RMB/t | $720-$760/t | ↓ Weak |
| Group I Base Oil SN150 | 4,800-5,200 RMB/t | $600-$640/t | → Stable |
| Compound Additive Package | 28,000-35,000 RMB/t | $3,800-$4,500/t | → Stable |
Sources: Longzhong Information, Shengyishe, Argus Media | June 2026 data, partially referencing prior values
Trade & Macro Indicators
Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth rate was approximately 4.2%, with the industrial added value share rising to 35%. China-Kazakhstan bilateral trade volume continued to grow, exceeding $45 billion in 2025. Lubricant import tariffs are roughly 5%-8%. Chinese goods transported via the China-Europe/Central Asia Railway Express save approximately 15-20 days in transit time compared to sea freight.
- KZ GDP Growth Rate (2025):~4.2%
- China-KZ Bilateral Trade Vol:>$45 Billion (2025)
- Lubricant Import Tariff:5%-8%
- USD/KZT Exchange Rate:~1:475 (Jun 2026)
Sources: World Bank, National Bank of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Commerce of China | 2025 Full Year & June 2026 data
Risks & Opportunity Windows
Risks: Low-priced Russian lubricants continue to squeeze market share; Tenge exchange rate fluctuations impact import profits; Kazakhstan's local blending capacity expansion (expected 30,000-50,000 tons of new capacity in 2026-2027) poses substitution risks. Opportunities: Optimized China-Kazakhstan logistics corridors reduce landed costs, Chinese brand cost-performance advantages are clear, and industrial oil demand in mining and infrastructure sectors exhibits strong growth.
- ⚠ Risk:RU low-price competition, spread widening to 10%-15%
- ⚠ Risk:Tenge exchange rate fluctuating >15% annually
- ✓ Opportunity:Improved logistics lead time, landed costs down 5%-7%
- ✓ Opportunity:Mining/Infra industrial oil demand up 8%-10% YoY
Sources: Argus Media, Ministry of Industry of Kazakhstan, Commercial Office of the Chinese Embassy in Kazakhstan | Comprehensive analysis June 2026
Disclaimer: The data in this report is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets are risky; decision-making requires caution.